Products
Market resolution & oracles
How Yes/No outcomes are verified, UMA, and writing rules for news markets.
At a glance
Outcomes follow published rules — not admin whim. Creators write criteria; resolvers propose Yes/No; disputes catch bad proposals. UMA is the optimistic-oracle model Bullymarket targets for mainnet.
Quick tip
If you cannot explain Yes vs No from the rules alone, do not trade — and do not create the market until criteria are objective.
Prediction markets pay winners only after the real-world question resolves to Yes or No. Bullymarket is designed so outcomes follow published rules — not ad-hoc guesses. Creators define resolution criteria when they launch a market; at the deadline, a resolver proposes an outcome and traders can dispute incorrect proposals before settlement.
Do we manually pick Yes or No?
Not as the default path. A trusted admin clicking Yes or No whenever they want would centralize trust and discourage serious traders. The intended model is: rules are fixed before trading starts, then resolution follows those rules through a proposer + optional dispute process (similar to Polymarket’s use of UMA). Manual override may exist only for exceptional cases — cancelled markets, broken oracle, or rules that were impossible to interpret — and should be transparent, not routine.
What creators must define upfront
When someone creates a market — including a news market — the wizard collects the pieces traders need to evaluate fairness before they bet.
- Clear question — one verifiable Yes/No (or named outcomes for multi-outcome templates).
- Resolution date — when the market becomes eligible to settle.
- Resolution criteria — exactly how Yes vs No is decided: sources, exact conditions, timezone, and edge cases.
- Category & data source — sports, crypto price, politics, custom, etc. Templates prompt for the fields that matter most.
Custom markets require resolution criteria in the description field. Without objective criteria, resolution collapses into subjective judgment — which oracles and dispute systems cannot fairly automate.
Resolution flow (intended)
- 1
Trading period
Users buy and sell outcome shares while the event is open. Prices reflect implied probability from pool activity — not the final result.
- 2
Market reaches deadline
After the resolution date in the market metadata, new trading may halt or move to settlement mode depending on program design.
- 3
Resolver proposes an outcome
A bonded proposer submits Yes or No (or the winning named outcome) based on the written rules and cited sources — not personal opinion.
- 4
Dispute window
If the proposal is wrong, others can challenge it within a time window by posting a dispute bond. Undisputed proposals finalize.
- 5
Settlement
Winning shares redeem for collateral; losing shares expire worthless. Portfolio and on-chain balances update after settlement confirms.
News & politics markets
News markets are harder than sports scores or token prices because headlines differ across outlets, stories evolve, and language can be ambiguous. Good news markets anchor resolution to verifiable facts.
| Strong (tradable) | Weak (avoid) |
|---|---|
| Named primary source (e.g. AP, Reuters, official .gov URL) | “Major news outlets report…” without naming outlets |
| Exact condition (headline text, official statement filed, court ruling) | “If the news is bad for crypto” |
| Hard deadline with timezone (e.g. July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET) | “Soon” or “this month” with no cutoff |
| Edge cases defined (retractions, delays, “reports say” vs confirmed) | Subjective words: significant, controversial, widely seen |
Example of a well-formed custom news market: “Resolves Yes if AP publishes a headline containing ‘X resigns’ on apnews.com before July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise No. Secondary blogs and social posts do not count unless AP confirms.”
What is UMA?
UMA (Universal Market Access) is a protocol best known for its Optimistic Oracle — a system for settling subjective or event-based questions on-chain. Price oracles like Chainlink answer “What is BTC/USD?” UMA-style oracles answer “Did this event happen per the market rules?”
- Someone proposes an outcome (e.g. Yes) with a bond.
- A challenge window opens — others can dispute if they believe the proposal violates the written rules.
- If undisputed, the proposal is accepted and the market settles.
- If disputed, UMA’s Data Verification Mechanism (DVM) lets UMA token holders vote on the correct outcome using the market’s criteria.
UMA does not magically read the news. It enforces a process: propose → optionally dispute → settle. The quality of resolution depends on the clarity of the rules the creator published on day one. Bullymarket template Rules text references platform and UMA oracle rules as the north star for mainnet settlement.
Bullymarket today vs planned
| Area | Today | Planned (mainnet) |
|---|---|---|
| Trading | USDC through Phantom on supported markets | Full mainnet rollout |
| Rules on detail page | Template text + creator description in DB | Same criteria stored on-chain / IPFS |
| Resolution | Admin resolve/close tools; full dispute flow TBD | Resolver proposal + dispute window |
| News templates | Custom category + free-text criteria | Stricter templates: source URL, headline match, TZ |
| Manual override | Admin console exception path | Transparent exception path only |
Checklist for creators
- Can a stranger with no context determine Yes/No from your rules alone?
- Did you name exact sources, not “ credible media”?
- Did you specify timezone on the resolution deadline?
- Did you cover retractions, delays, and partial reports?
- Would you bet your own money under these rules if you didn’t know the outcome yet?